Geothermal Energy Could Supply Up to 15% of Global Electricity by 2050

Geothermal energy is emerging as one of the most promising sources of clean, reliable electricity in the global transition to net-zero. New research suggests that by 2050, it could provide up to 15% of global electricity, supplying power consistently and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.

At present, geothermal energy accounts for less than 1% of global electricity, with production concentrated in countries such as the United States, Indonesia, Kenya, and Iceland. However, technological advances in drilling, reservoir mapping, and enhanced geothermal systems are expanding access to underground heat resources far beyond traditional volcanic regions. This next generation of systems could unlock vast potential, transforming geothermal into a globally scalable renewable energy source.

Expanding Capacity and Potential

Geothermal electricity generation currently relies on naturally occurring hydrothermal reservoirs, where underground heat turns water into steam to drive turbines. These resources are limited by geography, but enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) aim to change that. By drilling deeper, sometimes up to eight kilometers, and creating artificial fractures in hot dry rock, engineers can inject water to generate steam even where natural reservoirs do not exist.

If these technologies mature and costs continue to decline, global geothermal capacity could rise to around 800 gigawatts by mid-century. That would be enough to produce approximately 6,000 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, roughly equivalent to the combined current consumption of the United States and India.

A Reliable Complement to Solar and Wind

Unlike solar and wind power, geothermal energy is not dependent on weather conditions or daylight. Plants can operate around the clock, providing baseload and flexible generation to balance intermittent renewables. Geothermal facilities typically achieve utilization rates above 75%, compared with less than 30% for wind and below 20% for solar.

This reliability makes geothermal an attractive option for electricity grids with growing shares of variable renewable energy. It can also reduce the need for large-scale storage, lower grid integration costs, and help stabilize power systems during periods of low wind or sunshine.

Economic and Industrial Implications

Expanding geothermal deployment presents opportunities for industries and investors alike. The oil and gas sector, in particular, has transferable expertise in drilling, reservoir management, and subsurface engineering that could accelerate geothermal development. Up to 80% of geothermal project investment overlaps with technologies and skills used in hydrocarbon exploration.

While geothermal projects are capital-intensive at the outset, mainly due to exploration and drilling, they benefit from long operating lifetimes and low running costs. Once a plant is established, it can generate stable power for decades, offering long-term value for utilities and investors.

Industrial users are also beginning to view geothermal as a source of process heat and direct energy. Data centers, manufacturing facilities, and green hydrogen producers may increasingly rely on geothermal power as part of their decarbonization strategies.

Policy and Investment Priorities

To reach its full potential, geothermal energy will require a major shift in policy and financing. Currently, only a small number of countries have comprehensive frameworks supporting geothermal exploration and development. Governments can play a key role in derisking early-stage projects, streamlining permits, and providing targeted incentives for resource characterization and drilling.

Internationally, public and private investment must expand substantially to unlock geothermal’s potential. Global investment in the sector could exceed two trillion dollars by 2050 if current technology improvements and cost reductions continue. Cost declines of up to 80% by 2035 are possible through economies of scale, shared infrastructure, and advances in drilling efficiency.

Addressing Challenges

Despite its promise, geothermal energy faces notable barriers. Exploration risk remains high, as drilling does not always guarantee productive wells. Permitting processes can be slow and complex, often governed by mining or oil and gas laws not tailored to geothermal development. In some regions, concerns about induced seismicity, small tremors caused by subsurface stimulation, also require careful management and community engagement.

Financing models must also evolve to reflect geothermal’s long-term value and reliability. Because early costs are high, developers need mechanisms that reward consistent, dispatchable generation rather than just capacity additions. Markets that recognize the stability and grid services geothermal provides are more likely to attract sustainable investment.

Outlook for 2050 and Beyond

If geothermal energy scales as successfully as solar and wind did over the past two decades, it could move from a niche to a mainstream role in the clean energy mix. Global investment could reach trillions by mid-century, enabling a significant contribution to the world’s electricity supply while reducing carbon emissions and supporting grid reliability.

Regions with growing energy demand, limited access to sunlight or wind, or abundant subsurface heat could particularly benefit. For developing economies, geothermal could provide a pathway to secure, low-cost, and low-emission power generation.

As the world races toward net-zero targets, geothermal energy represents a unique opportunity: a renewable source that runs continuously, requires minimal land use, and leverages existing industrial expertise. While challenges remain, its combination of reliability, scalability, and sustainability makes it a strong candidate to power the next stage of the clean energy transition.

Source: theconversation.com